Uma análise do desempenho da produtividade total dos fatores na economia brasileira no período 1950-2018

Abstract

Productivity is the essential factor that determines the sustainable growth of an economy in the long term. This research aims to analyze the performance of total factor productivity (TFP) - a multifactorial measure of productivity - in the Brazilian economy between 1950 and 2018, with emphasis on the last subperiod of the series - 1995-2018 - whose beginning is characterized by stabilization of the Brazilian economy. The methodology is based on the neoclassical growth model. Three different TFP calculations were performed, according to the productivity determinant to be considered. Furthermore, in order to demonstrate the relative importance of growth determinants, two types of growth decomposition exercises were performed: the logarithmic decomposition and the alternative growth decomposition. The results show that after almost four decades TFP has not been able to surpass the levels of the end of the 1970s and that the growth of the referred indicator verified from the 1990s onwards has not proved to be sustainable, reinforcing the suggestion of part of the literature that the productivity of the Brazilian economy has been stagnant for some time. In addition, they indicate that most of the growth in output per worker comes from the contribution of human capital.