Planejamento agrícola sob condições de risco para pequenas propriedades da zona semi-árida dos sertões do estado do Ceará

Abstract

The objective of this study is to develop a production vlan, under risk conditions, for a typical small farm in the semi-arid vart of Cearã (the so-called Sertão), to serve as a helping tool in the decision making process . of the farmers. The study covers the agroecological region of the sertão, which involves counties and 80% of the Ceará state surface. By using an algorithm for quadratic programming the alternatives combinations of production were optimized under risk conditions and maximum income for the producer was determined. The combination of expansion in the area available for agricultural activities with the iontroduction of new cultivision using improved technology to cause the largest increase in producer income level. This represents, in relation to the prevalaing production level, an increase of 57% in net revenue. The research also showed that the increase depends on new cultivation with tecnological innovation rather than on the expansion in the total acreage. The combination of new activities with the expansion in the agricultural area also produced a better distribution in family labor.The increment in family labor use reached of 89% xcomparade to the current situation. The introduction of new activities in responsible for the greatest impacts in the use of this factor. Generally, the results indicate that through diversification in the combined cultivation and increase in the agricultural area, the farmers will succeed in reducing their risk.