Análise dinâmica do mercado agrícola no nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

This research had the following general purposes: to study seasonal changes in the time series of prices and supplies for rice, "macassar" beans, cassava flour, corn, banana and oranges in the Northeastern market, as well as the conditions of leadership and lag bettween prices anã supplies, flexibility coefficients, elasticity and price responses to changes in the traded volumes. For the purpose of this study, a period comprising 108 months was considered, from January, 1972 to December, 1980 in the series of prices and volumes for the products studied in the capital cities of the Northeastern states. The results pointed to the existence of 12 month-long seasonal cycles for the series of prices and traded volumes for rice, macassar beans, corn, cassava flour, orange and banana; the annual harmonic coefficients were significant, with the exception of that for rice in Teresina's market, for corn in Joao Pessoa, and for banana in Aracaju. In general, the ranges for the price series in the studied markets were relatively greater than those for volumes traded, which suggests that a stabilization mechanism for prices through a regulatory stocks policy would have considerable applicability. On the other hand, the evidence showed either the existence of a definite pattern, whether of prices leading volumes or of volumes leading prices, or the absence of such a pattern; the latter would suggest simultaneous adjustment between prices and volumes for the products considered in each capital's market. The estimated price flexibility coefficients suggested that the product prices are, in general, subject to greater proportional variability than are the volumes traded. The price elasticity of demand coefficients for banana and orange were characteristically inelastic. As for the other products, characteristics of an elastic or inelastic demand were observed, in some cases conílicting with results obtained by PASTORE (1971). The price response analysis demonstrated adjustment over short time intervals, except for corn and orange, which showed anticipation of prices to the changes in volume over longer time intervals. The study came to the conclusion that policies aimed toward stabilizing prices, such as building-up buffer stocks, or minimum price policies, will be of greatest stimulus for internal trade transactions, bringing in turn more stable revenues to producers and better income distribution to the consumers of tradional products.