Como a dívida pública impacta as famílias, as firmas e os estados no Brasil?

Abstract

With the evolution of the crisis associated with the covid-19, several economists claims that the Federal Government should disrespect the spending ceiling and greatly expand spending to contain a pandemic. The objective of the spending ceiling (Constitutional Amendment 95/2016) is to contain the explosive growth of public debt / GDP. The idea of this work is to investigate how and how much the public debt impacts key variables for Brazilian economic agents (families, firms and state governments). Based on Bayesian autoregressive vectors, we show how the growth of public debt affects i) an index that involves the index, which are relevant variables for the well-being of families; ii) the production of firms, and; iii) the collection of ICMS by state governments. The results show that, in Brazil, an increase in debt has a negative impact on the variables in question and, consequently, on the economic agents.