Interação entre as instabilidades espacial e temporal da pluviometria na produção de leite no Ceará

Abstract

The general objective of this search was to evaluate the synergy between the annual rainfall and the defining variables in milk production in the twenty largest milk producing municipalities in Ceará State, from 1973 to 2020. The research used data from the Ceará State Foundation of Meteorology and Water Resources, as well from Municipality Livestock Research of IBGE in the investigated period. The municipalities' rains were organized in periods of drought, normality, and rainy seasons. The instability index (INST) was created, which sought to capture the synergy between the annual rain fall of the municipalities, the number of lactating cows, the daily milk productivity per cow, and the average milk price received by producers. To build the INST, the research used the Factor Analysis method. The results confirmed the high temporal and spatial instabilities of rainfall in the municipalities. It is also clear from the results that in all municipalities the INST estimated for the drought periods were always lower than those estimated in the other periods, which confirms the great importance of rainfall in the success to produce milk in Ceará State.