Análise do comportamento de preços da castanha de caju no Ceará

Abstract

Ceará is the biggest cashew producer in Brazil, both the pulp (peduncle) and the nut, the harvested area in 2018 was tantamount to 63,5% of Brazil's total harvested area. Like any agricultural activity, cashew production has its own risks (weather, price and availability of resources, seasonal production) which demand a careful approach towards planning and managing an agricultural enterprise. One of the tools used to improve the decision making of the economical agents in the agricultural productive chain is the knowledge of the reasons behind the product's price fluctuation. The price series, of shelled cashew nut prices paid to the producer from january 2014 to september 2021 and processed cashew nut prices paid in wholesale from june 2014 to september 2021, were decomposed through simple linear regression models. The models were subjected to Student's t-test with a significance level of 5%. The regression models for the two price series showed a downward trend, however, the linear coefficient of producer prices wasn't statistically significant, showing a stability trend. The price forecast for september 2022, based on the regression models and taking into account the seasonal factor, indicate a price of R$ 4.83/Kg for the shelled nut (producer). For processed nut, considering the seasonality factor, the price reached R$ 34.02/Kg.