Classificação climática de Thornthwaite para o Brasil com base em cenários de mudanças climáticas do IPCC-AR5

Abstract

The objective of this work is to evaluate the Thornthwaite water balance approach from the IPCC-AR5 projections and to identify the possible changes in the climate classification projected by this method. For this purpose, the projections of 14 CMIP5 models from the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, from 2010 to 2099, in comparison to the historical scenario (1950 to 1999). The methodology consists in obtaining the monthly surface precipitation and temperature near surface from the climate models. The water balance is performed by the Thornthwaite method considering the potential evapotranspiration (PET), the monthly rainfall and the soil parameters from the Harmonized World Soil Database over Brazil’s regions. The regional climate classification was based on the output variables of the method. The projections from the models show indicate an increase in temperature and ETP for the different regions of Brazil. The Northern and Center-Western Brazil show an increase in the more arid climates, while the South Region points to an increase in humid climates. Such changes pose a challenge to water resources management, which should adapt to future demands and water availability.