Rentabilidade da irrigação no perímetro mandacaru sob condições de risco

Abstract

Agriculture activity, even when irrigated, is among the other sectors of economy, the one that is subject to the highest rate of risk, so that, the present study aims to evaluate the rentability of irrigated agriculture, under risk conditions, at the public project Mandacaru, in Juazeiro, Bahia State, Brazil. Specifically, it was estimated the probability distribution function associated to net income, profit, capital rate remuneration and return to family labor, using a simulation-model, called Monte Carlo. In the estimation of the costs and expenses, it was considered three cases in relation to the price of water tariff. In the first case, it the water tariff, actually charged at the project, high subsidized, was considered. To the second case, it was supposed that the water tariff charged was sufficient to cover only the annual costs of administration, operation and maintenance. At last, in the third case, it was considered a water tariff which is sufficient to cover all the costs of the project, including those ones related to the mortgage of public investiments. The results showed that the units of exploitation at the project are economically feasible and returns are more that sufficient to pay with almost absolute security, a water tariff including the costs of administration, operation and maintenance, as well as a water tariff which covers not only the metioned costs, but also the ones relateto the mortgage of public investments.