Análise de séries temporais para previsão mensal do icms: o caso do Piauí

Abstract

This dissertation deals with a research on the temporal series analysis for the monthly forecast of the turnover and services tax – ICMS in Brazil – in the state of Piauí. The aim of this research is to offer the statewide policymakers a consistent forecast and powerfully predictive model, so as to contribute to the state finance management. In this work, the ARIMA and Assignment Function models were used to carry out forecasts, as well as Forecast Combination. The dissertation presents a diagnosis of the ICMS in the state of Piauí, a review on the literature where the main theoretical aspects of the models carried out in the work are addressed, in addition to the empirical findings analysis. As a conclusion, it can be observed that the findings carried out in this dissertation are in harmony with other results of similar works carried out on the theme, which corroborates the importance of the models using the temporal series analysis as a forecasting instrument.