Evolução da matriz elétrica brasileira e os impactos em decorrência da integração das fontes eólica e solar em larga escala

Abstract

Environmental issues involving global warming have gained relevance in social and governmental discussions around the world. The need to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, is one of the topics most addressed by environmentalists since these gases contribute to the worsening of global warming. The primary energy and electricity production mixes of the countries still have a large part of their consumption based on sources that use fossil fuels for energy production, which emit carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In this context, renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar energy, present themselves as solutions to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in the production of electricity and have gained relevance in the countries' electricity generation mix. Despite having a matrix with renewable sources, Brazil continues to adopt a posture in favor of decarbonization of its electricity generation mix and, for this reason, has been increasing the participation of wind and solar sources. The objective of this work is to analyze the evolution of the Brazilian electric generation mix through historical data of operation and the future perspectives of the electric generation mix based on the operation plan of the Brazilian operator. In addition, this study seeks to highlight the impacts and structural challenges that these changes impose on the current electrical system that was built on the principle of centralized generation. Finally, the qualitative analysis of these impacts shows that the agents of the Brazilian electric power system, such as the ONS, need to make a structural change to take into account the new complexities that distributed generation imposes on the grid. The way the system operates needs to be adapted to this new scenario with less predictability of production and less inertia against eventual imbalances in the system.