Relationship between rainfall instability and agricultural production in the brazilian semi-arid region

Abstract

The study evaluated the synergy between the indicators of rainfall, vegetation cover, land productivity in crop production, livestock production and the relationship between the value of aggregate agricultural production and the gross domestic product of municipalities in the semi-arid region of the State of Ceará, Brazil. The data sources are: Ceará Meteorology and Water Resources Foundation (FUNCEME) and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the years 1996, 2006 and 2017. The researchused the methodology of factor analysis (FA), with decomposition into principal components, to construct the index of agricultural production preservation (IAPP). The results showed that 1996 had the best rainfall levels and the highest IAPP values compared to the other years studied. Year of 2017 was the last one of a draught period that extended in Ceará from 2012 to 2017. In that year the lowest values for IAPP were observed. The main conclusion is: there was the expected interaction between rainfall and agricultural preservation indicators applied in the semi-arid region of the state of Ceará in the years 1996, 2006 and 2017.