Avaliação do impacto na arrecadação do ICMS das políticas de combate à evasão fiscal no setor varejista

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of the ICMS taxpayer regarding his decision to evade taxes, whereas a higher probability of detection and punishment adopted by the the Treasury Department of the State of Ceará, based on the hypothesis considered by Allingham and Sandmo (1972). Using models to identify structural breaks in time series, by Bai e Perron (2003), is an analysis of the impacts in the collection of ICMS with the publication of two norms. The first was edited in October 2001 and the last in September 2007, which allowed the Treasury Department of the State of Ceará know the amount of sales paid off credit and debit card and increasing the efficiency of tax authorities regarding the detection of potential tax evaders. We obtained evidence that the first norm was issued a positive effect on the collection of segments involved, while the second normative constraint is not identified structural changes that raise the level of the collection industry.