Estudo de mudança de regimes de séries temporais da saúde suplementar brasileira

Abstract

To analyze the demand for health services, it is necessary to first understand some specific factors, such as and where people seek health services, and the income profile of these individuals. In Brazil, in general, we have two types of health plans: individual and collective. By 2019, according to data from IESS (Institute of Supplementary Health Studies), 67.5% of users had a collective business plan, which is, a benefit resulting from their employment relationship. Therefore, the objective of this work is to investigate the relationship between the Supplementary Health sector and the unemployment rate in the country, in the light of the Temporal Series methodology, aimed at the study of regime changes (or structural breaks). The literature review contemplates, in a first part, the analysis of the market environment of health plans, conceptually presenting their characteristics and the behavior of the sector over the past few years. In a second part, the theoretical lens of this work is presented, exploring the study of structural breaks and some themes related to it. Regarding the methodology, the analysis was of a qualitative nature. The research was carried out through the application of the Bai-Perron test. Through the visual inspection of the time series and the execution of the BP test, 3 significant break dates were identified. These breaks analyzed together with the historical records allowed the conclusion that there is an intense relationship between the supplementary health sector and the formal labor market in the country. Also noteworthy is the finding that in addition to unemployment, other variables are influential in the sphere of supplementary health, such as income and household consumption, even as the incorporation of new market players, such as popular medical clinics. The results found have an investigative character and may point in the direction of a more robust economic modeling.