Um estudo sobre o impacto da política fiscal na arrecadação do ICMS do Estado do Ceará através do modelo de vetores autorregressivo

Abstract

This research aims to analyze quantitatively impacts of tax policy promoted by the Federal Government on the behavior of tax revenues of ICMS in Ceará. Thus, we considered information on the tax revenues of industrial, trade and electric, beyond the rate of open unemployment in Fortaleza and how the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy used the ratio between expenditure and revenue of the Federal Government. The model used here is composed of vector autoregression and arguments based on Toda and Yamamoto (1995), and impulse response functions and variance decomposition. The results suggest that a positive shock on fiscal policy has no impact on the sector of tax revenues of ICMS by SEFAZ-CE. However, shocks in the tax revenue of industry exert positive impact on the unemployment rate in Ceará.