O impacto causado pela redução do IPI na arrecadação do ICMS no Brasil

Abstract

This study has the objective of analyzing the impacts that the reduction of IPI tax of the segments of automobiles, major appliances and capital goods had over the level of production of these segments, and also to the state revenue of the ICMS tax. To this end, it was used as methodology a panel data model, taking the state revenue of ICMS as the dependent variable, to the period situated between October 2007 and August 2009; and time series models to predict the revenue of ICMS in a state of nature where the reduction of IPI has not yet taken place. We also tried to analyze the evolution of the ICMS revenue for the state of Ceará compared to other states of Brazil during this period. The results suggest that the reduction of the federal tax contributed to increase the level of production of the segments studied, but both the revenue of IPI and ICMS were attached to the level of production of the economy, and, thus, declined with the subprime crisis. However, the predictions ex post suggests that the reduction of IPI tax helped to prevent the reduction of ICMS to be greater. With respect to the ICMS revenue from the state of Ceará, we observed that it also has shown strong correlation to the level of industrial production of the state and also a fast recovery from the crisis scenery, if compared to other states of Brazil.