Avaliação da influência de variáveis socioeconômicas na demanda hídrica de centros urbanos: estudo de caso em Fortaleza – Ce

Abstract

Due to the increase in water demand, population growth, economic development, urbanization index, and the limited resources available, Brazilian cities present an important challenge which it is the water availability. In this way, the people responsible for the decision-making process need to seek the balance of human demand for water, thus it is necessary to have a technical and scientific basis. So, the present study intends to analyze the behavior of the influence of socioeconomic data on the residential demand by census tracts in urban centers, applying the lmer multilevel regression method in the data of Fortaleza (CE). A series of demand from 2009 to 2017 was used, as well as data of HDI and average income by sector. Socioeconomic indexes were divided into five classes each. After applying the method, 25 equations of the second degree were obtained, each one referring to the relation of an HDI class with an income class. It can be concluded that in the study time the sectors presented a similar tendency of evolution in time and that when observing the intercept of the generated equations, it was deduced that sectors with lower HDI, as well as lower average income, present values of demand, usually, smaller, since they start with a smaller quantity in the initial year.