Análise de projeções das mudanças climáticas sobre o regime de precipitação nas bacias do sistema Jaguaribe, Ceará, Brasil

Abstract

The objective of this work was to analyze the precipitation projections on the Banabuiú, Castanhão and Orós Hydrographic Basins (BHs) of six models (CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, ICHEC-EC-EARTH, IPSL-CMSA-MR, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-M-ESM e NOAA-GFDL-ESM2M) CORDEX Project participants. The analyzes evaluated the variability, anomaly and trend of average annual rainfall. Considering both scenarios in the first period (2006-2035), most models indicated a greater possibility of reducing rainfall in all basins. CSIRO-Mk3 was the only one that projected an increase in the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period from 2036 to 2065 and scenario RCP8.5, a greater dispersion of the models was observed. A probable increase in precipitation was pointed out in greater magnitude by the IPSL-CMSA-MR in the three basins. CSIRO-Mk3 was the only indicate significant reduction in precipitation in all basins and both scenarios, highlighting the Castanhão BH (RCP8.5 scenario) and Banabuiú BH (RCP4.5 scenario). In the third period (2066-2095), most models pointed to increased precipitation in all studied basins and in both scenarios. CSIRO-Mk3 suggested a decrease in precipitation for all BHs. All models showed significant trends for all basins in the RCP8.5 scenario.