Identificação de tendências e ciclos comuns na evolução dos índices da América do Sul

Abstract

The present study aims to test the presence of common cycles for major stock markets of countries in South America following the methodology of Vahid and Engle (1993). Using the accumulated gross nominal monthly return for the major stock indexes in Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Chile and Peru for the period from January, 1998 to November, 2010, there was the presence of a common cycle in the system. Later cycles were estimated for each series using the trend-cycle decomposition of multivariate Beveridge and Nelson and extracted the correlations between the cycles and the common cycle. The results show that the values of the individual cycles exhibit similar correlations on average equal to 0.78, compared to the common cycle. This result is due to the same standard of individual cycles of the stock indexes, in which they are strongly correlated, with an average correlation of 0.98.