Avaliação do risco de eutrofização em reservatórios da bacia do Acaraú, Ceará, Brasil

Abstract

The eutrophication has compromised the water quality in reservoirs all over the world. In the state of Ceará, Brazil, the reservoirs Araras, Edson Queiroz and Jaibaras, located in the Acaraú waterbasin, presented high nutrient level, during a year of water monitoring, indicating a possible stage of water eutrophication. This work aims to assess the risk of eutrophication in these reservoirs. In order to make this evaluation, it was used a fuzzy risk method and the following probabilistic methods: Point Estimate Method (PEM), Monte Carlo Simulation, Mean Value First Order Second Moment (MFOSM) and Advanced First-Order Second-Moment (AFOSM). The results of this assessment show a risk superior of 50% in the three reservoirs, been found the higher risk, between 89 e 99%, in Edson Queiroz.