Análise de convergência de bem estar dos municípios do Estado do Ceará 1991-2000, uma aplicação de matriz de transição de Markov

Abstract

This paper has for objective analyze the hypothesis of convergence in welfare conditions indexes of the municipal districts of the state of Ceará and the dynamics of his growth in the period of 1991-2000. The applied methodology in this paper was the method of the transitions in Markov chains that is a process of estimate of the balance distributions among classes. Among the conclusions, the convergence process among the classes was not homogeneous. It was diagnosed that welfare disparities among groups of poor and rich municipal districts continue and they tend turn larger with the time. In spite of a tendency to increase the differences between classes, there was a shy reduction of the "most miserable" classes. The speed of the convergence process for the groups of districts is very slow and heterogeneous with formation of clubs.