Situação fiscal e risco de crédito das capitais brasileiras: fatores que afetam a obtenção do aval da união para a contratação de operações de crédito, uma análise no período de 2015 a 2018

Abstract

The objective of this research is to investigate factors that may have a significant influence on the Assessment of Fiscal Situation and Credit Risk in 26 Brazilian capitals in the period from 2015 to 2018. This research has character descriptive with a quantitative approach using data extracted from the electronic environment of subnational entities, targets of this analysis, as well as electronic environments from national repository such as SICONFI and the Compara Brasil data portal. It was observed, through logistic regression, that personal expenses, social security expenditures and contractual debt stock present significant relationships regarding the probability, at the 5% level, of allocation for obtaining a favorable score for the Payment Capacity and the guarantees by Federal Government for the contracting credit operations. In the other side, the stock of precatories expenses didn’t present significant relationships regarding the probability for the same objective. This way, it is suggested the adoption of permanent and eventual measures to control spending on control the Personal Expenses, a greater control on social security expenses and on the contractual debt stock. These variables influence for don’t to obtain a grade favorable Payment Capacity and, consequently, in Federal Government's guarantee in contracting credit operations. With the suggested measures, the public entity can continue to doing investment expenditures meeting the needs of the population with balance and financial health while avoid a great indebtedness.