Instabilidades climáticas e produção de lavouras alimentares no semiárido cearense: estudo dos casos de Acopiara e Iguatu

Abstract

Rainfall instability is a striking feature in the Brazilian semiarid. The semiarid is often affected by long periods of drought due to its irregular rainfall. This irregularity of rainfall in the region directly influences agriculture, especially on rainfed crops. Rainfed production is widespread throughout the State of Ceará, especially beans, cassava and maize crops, which are important because they are the food base and the source of income for thousands of farmers in the state. This paper aimed to trace the fluctuating behavior of annual rainfall in the Municipalities of Acopiara and Iguatu, compared to what occurs in Ceará, from 1974 to 2017 and thus to evaluate the instability of endogenous variables in each of the identified rainfall regimes. The coefficients of variation were used as rainfall instability measures, harvested area, yield and average price. The results prove rainfall instability in both municipalities studied. They reveal that there are differences between the rainfall regimes defined for each municipality. It is also proved that, in general, during the drought period the endogenous variables present greater instability.