Avaliação de impacto da atividade financeira (instituição bancária) sobre o desenvolvimento econômico municipal no Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

The literature presents several prisms of the relationship between financial activity and economic development, in this work, we seek to evaluate this relation in order to observe it for the municipalities in the Brazilian northeast, with a population of up to 100 thousand inhabitants. We consider as variables of the HDI, the GINI Index and the poverty line (P0); we also considered observable characteristics (14 indicators), and finally the period considered in the study from 2000 to 2010, measuring the effect of credit per capita in the year 2002. In order to evaluate the effect of the data treatment, we used the Generalized Propensity Score, where the ideal would be to observe these same municipalities in the absence of treatment, since this is impossible, the factual counter becomes the most similar municipality possible, with one that has been treated. The data evaluated pointed to a direct and positive impact on the poverty line (P0), a positive impact on the HDI, and a smaller and possibly even linear impact on the GINI index, pointing out that this indicator does not change considerably in the analyzed period (2000 - 2010).