Análise exploratória de acidentes com pedestres em zonas de tráfego de Fortaleza

Abstract

The development of long term studies related to road safety improvement has become a common practice in Brazil and abroad. This Under Graduation Project presents an exploratory analysis of variables related to pedestrian accidents in areas of the city of Fortaleza-Brazil. Firstly, a 283 traffic zones database was consolidated with variables that represent land use, road geometry and operation and socioeconomics characteristics. Previous studies indicate that analysis made in traffic zones presents better results when the spatial factor is considered. To achieve the main goal, which was to investigate the relationship between the collected variables and the pedestrian accidents, three steps were followed: i) exploratory non spatial data analysis, ii) exploratory spatial data analysis, and iii) comparison of Accidents Prediction Models (APM) using binomial negative distribution and spatial dependence. The results showed that the variables related to trip generation and constant pedestrian flow are linked to the frequency of pedestrian accidents. The spatial dependence of the accidents was analyzed and proven. The comparison of parameters and residuals distribution between APM binomial negative and spatial confirmed that the use of spatial factors in area APM is highly significant to increase the model fitness.