Como as mudanças climáticas podem influenciar a distribuição de espécies xerófitas?

Abstract

Climate change transforms environmental conditions, and consequently, affects the distribution of organisms around the planet. We aim with this biogeographic study to understand the probability of future occurrence of five xerophyte species of the genus Tacinga Britton & Rose (Cactaceae), distributed in the Brazilian semi-arid, in phytogeographic domains of caatinga and cerrado. For this, we used bioclimatic variables that derived the futuristic models present in the manuscript. Our hypothesis is that due to global warming predicted for the coming years, xerophytic species will have the geographical distribution favored and expanded even in areas at risk of desertification. However, our results suggest that this factor should be analyzed according to each taxon, since not all species will expand their distribution. We verified that in the Brazilian territory there are strategic locations for the preservation of these species such as the Chapada Diamantina in Bahia, considered a biological refuge of the genus. We conclude that species with a more restricted probability of occurrence, such as T. funalis and T. saxatilis need to be conserved, due to a possible geographical restriction in future times, more precisely in 2050.