Crescimento e volatidade do crescimento: uma análise para a economia brasileira entre 1995 e 2014

Abstract

The macroeconomic theory has long addressed the rules associated with economic growth and fluctuations in business cycles. After the paper of Ramey and Ramey (1995), which shows that countries that have greater volatility, greater proportions in short-term economic activity, lower economic growth of longer term, more prominence in literature to analyze the integration between growth theories economic and business cycle theories. It is worth emphasizing the importance of the prohibition of important causes for the conduct of macroeconomic policy. If, for example, short-term growth volatility has positively advanced long-term economic growth, long-term policies preceded long-term growth; that is, the ruler faces a trade between a long-term stage and a long-term model. The present study aims to analyze the interrelationship between long-term growth and its short-term volatility in the Brazilian economy with monthly data between January 1995 and December 2014 and application of an autoregressive model with generalized conditional heteroscedasticity on average (GARCH-M). The results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and economic growth. Therefore, there is no trade-off between short-term stability and long-term growth for the brazilian economy in the period analyzed.