Determinates das oscilações nos termos de troca do nordeste brasileiro

Abstract

This work analyzes how the terms of trade of basic and industrialized of Bahia, Pernambuco and Ceará states respond to currency depreciations and increases in domestic and foreign economic activity using monthly data from January 1999 to January 2014 and autoregressive vectors (VAR). The results show that these states have advantages in basic goods, since depreciation in the real exchange rate, expansion in foreign income and the growth of local industry tend to improve the terms of trade. Opposite results were observed for industrialized, confirming the low dynamism of the industry these states.