Condicionantes dos gastos com pessoal nos municípios do Ceará. Efeito composição e mudança de prefeito

Abstract

Since the publication of the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF), Brazilian public entities are subject to limitations on their expenses, including personnel expenses. However, several factors may influence the increase of these expenditures in municipalities, such as the political cycles, strict fiscal rules, and socioeconomic conditions. This research seeks to investigate, in addition to the importance of these factors, as the composition of municipal employees (effective, commissioned, trainees, service providers) and a possible change of mayor along the administrative intersts affect personnel expenses as a proportion of Net Current Revenue. For this, it uses information from the 184 municipalities of the state of Ceará from the last political interstice (2013 to 2016) and a linear regression model with grouped / stacked data, adopting cluster variance estimation to correct heteroskedasticity. The results indicate that the premature mayor change and the percentage of effective employees are significant variables and contribute positively to the increase in personnel expenses. Therefore, substitute mayors do not tend to implement personnel adjustments, on the contrary, they add even more on the payroll, with greater risks of irregularities.