Política creditícia no Brasil: o sertão vai virar mar?

Abstract

The Brazilian northeast region – characterized by the lowest per capita gross domestic product, the highest rates of poverty and inequality and lowest human development and social welfare indices – would need almost 35 years to be able to achieve the same total real credit per capita level of South and Southeast regions, ceteris paribus, based on data up to December 2009. In this context of disparity, this article intends to address empirically the issues about the relationship between the credit market, growth, income distribution and social welfare. The main evidence obtained between January 2004 and December 2009, using the Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology, suggests that there is not a global and unique convergence for the trajectory of credit, but the formation of two clubs strongly characterized by the regional aspect, where the second club is composed by states of the northeast region, in addition to some states of the north one. In addition to the regional aspect, the default rates, the per capita gross domestic product, the proportion of poor people and the human development index are variables that characterize clearly the differences between the two clubs, suggesting that they can be used in studies of discriminant analysis. This evidence confirms the reality already reported in related papers regarding the existence of two economies in the same national territory, taking into account the income, social infrastructure, or credit allocation. It is possible to infer that the current credit policy, divergent and exclusionary of the poorer classes, is not an efficient social vector capable of reducing inequalities of Brazil.