Comportamento das tendências e ciclos do ICMS setorial do Ceará

Abstract

This work breaks down the ICMS tax collection into the Fuel, Communication, Energy, Commerce, Industry and Others sectors in order to investigate the long and short-term behavior of ICMS sector revenues during the period of 2007:4 to 2016:12. To do this, the Beveridge-Nelson-Stock-Watson decomposition (Vahid and Engle, 1993) and the algorithm of Harding and Pagan (2002) were used. The results suggest a drop in sectoral ICMS collection during the national crisis storting in 2013. With respect to short-term dynamics, Granger's causality test found that short-term fluctuations of sectors with administered price (Energy and Fuel) have predictive capacity over the cycles of commercial and industrial sectors (sectors where prices are freely determined), indicating that government policies have direct and indirect effects on the ICMS sectoral collection. Finally, it was observed from the dates that the periods of the international crisis (2008-2009) and the national crisis, which began in 2013, exerted recussive pressures common to most of the sectors.