Estimação não paramétrica da taxa de utilização da capacidade instalada nos setores da indústria de transformação no Brasil

Abstract

The statistics available in Brazil on the Installed Capacity Utilization Rate (TUCI) are obtained through direct research to companies. One of them is the series of utilization of the capacity verified by the National Confederation of the Industry (CNI). The problem with this approach is that it is up to the responsible person appointed by the company to choose the methodology to be used and to declare its value, and the main difficulty for the use of alternative methods is the lack of capital stock statistics for the Brazilian industry which make it possible to estimate the potential output of the economy. Nevertheless, this work uses production information and the cost structure of the country’s industries, provided by the Annual Industrial Survey (PIA/IBGE), to estimate the capital stock of the manufacturing industry sectors and to obtain the TUCI through the non-parametric DEA Directional. Another aspect that distinguishes this work in the standard literature is the fact that the depreciation rate is estimated for each sector, not using ad hoc values as is usually done. The results indicate a high variability in the sectoral depreciation rates and a strong correlation of the estimated TUCI with the intensity of the capital in the sector, in counterpoint to the TUCI measure raised by the CNI.