Estudo de viabilidade econômica de uma obra residencial aplicando análise de sensibilidade e simulação de cenários

Abstract

This work focuses on investment analysis within civil construction applied to a real case of a residential project. This analysis is related to the cash flow’s uncertainty which is intrinsic to the variability of the construction costs and sales system of the analyzed enterprise. As a result, financial evaluations of an investment through deterministic evaluation methods such as IRR, NPV, CAE and payback become complex and require generation of diferente scenarios. Deterministic viability analysis were made. Subsequently, the focus was set on sensitivity analysis and generation of scenarios simulating possible changes in the variables most prevalent in the sensitivity analysis and, from that, if we evaluate the financial viability of the enterprise. Finally the investment analysis showed that the venture has great potential for return and remuneration of invested capital and that the analysis carried out promotes important results for decision making.