O Programa bolsa família e seus efeitos sobre o atendimento escolar, oferta de trabalho e mortalidade infantil : cenários para as regiões Norte/Nordeste e Brasil

Abstract

This article analyzes the functioning of the Conditional Cash Transfer Programs, particularly, the Bolsa-Família Program in Brazil, as mechanism of combating poverty and social exclusion. It was performed an ex-post evaluation based upon discrete choice models, concerning the conditional impacts of the Bolsa-Família in relation to its main objectives, such as the reduction of vulnerability conditions of the beneficiary families. Besides estimating the participation in the labor market of the beneficiaries, it was constructed different scenarios to verify how is modified the probability of occurrence of each endogenous phenomenon – school attendance, infantile laboring, infantile mortality – from the variation of different attributes of the beneficiaries (children and heads of family, gender and race). As a general result, the empirical evidences pointed that the PBF contributes satisfactorily for the increase of the school frequency, but not with regard to the reduction of the infantile work and infantile mortality, except for the Northern region.