Estudos sobre infraestrutura e transportes rodoviários no Brasil: estimação de demanda e efeitos de reestruturação

Abstract

This dissertation studies road infrastructure, long distance passengers’ mobility and freight logistics in Brazil, focusing on demand structure while discussing the effects of regulation and horizontal mergers on competition, costs and consumer welfare. After a methodological review in chapter 1 to compare models and describe techniques, we analyze the structural demand for bus trips in chapter 2 using the nested logit model on panel data from 2008 to 2010. Finally, in chapter 3, we use the event study methodology to verify how mergers between road infrastructure operators and between freight companies affect those markets. Our results point that: 1) bus trip demand is quite inelastic to prices, which may be harmful to passengers’ welfare; 2) calculated post-event abnormal returns were negative or neutral for road infrastructure firms, meaning competitive or no effect on that market, whereas the ones calculated for the merger of freight companies were positive when using a certain portfolio, containing stock prices of land-freight-only companies, indicating anticompetitive or neutral effect.