O sentimento de consumidores e o valor de mercado das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto

Abstract

Considering the importance and relevance in traditional international studies of qualitative variables on market indicators, the study investigates the dynamics of the Consumer Trust Index (ICC) of the Getulio Vargas Foundation in a comparison with the index of the São Paulo Stock Market for publicly traded companies in Brazil. In particular, it applies one autoregressive model with threshold value following the proposal of Caner and Hansen (2001), the two versions of the ICC in accordance with the income of consumers and the index of the São Paulo Ibovespa Stock Market. The results allow us to conclude that although the Trust Indices are important qualitative variables in the international literature as a study of market fluctuations, in developing countries like Brazil, even with a high degree of association with the market index, its high volatility and the dynamics arising from the difference exacerbated optimism or misperception of consumers shown as the biggest obstacle to the implementation of an accurate forecasting exercise.