Uma curva de Philips ampliada com o sentimento de consumidores e empresários

Abstract

This paper regards the consumers’ and entrepreneurs’ expectations into estimations of a “modified Phillips Curve” for Brazil. The results show that these "sense variables" may be relevant to model inflation and encourage their use in a inflation forecasting process. Some econometric models, in different specifications, showed significant increases in their explanatory power after the inclusion of these components. Moreover, the timeliness with which the indexes that reflect the sentiment of consumers and entrepreneurs are obtained stimulates their more extensive use in traditional econometric modeling in Brazil.