O regime de vazões anuais dos rios intermitentes na Bacia do Rio Jaguaribe: análise da autocorrelação das vazões anuais

Abstract

The transition matrix model applied in water plans and reservoir hydrological studies in Ceará state has as assumption that river’s annual discharges are serially independents. To test this assumption, 42 reservoirs from Ceará state studied in Jaguaribe River Basin Water Plan were selected. Two statistical hypotheses tests were applied to the time series: the non parametric Wald Wolfowitz and the Anderson test, both at 95% confidence level. The Wald Wolfowitz test accepted the hypothesis of no serial correlation on all the 42 reservoirs. For the Anderson test, in 41 the null hypothesis of no serial correlation was accepted. The rejection of just one series, representing 2.3% of the sample, is totally acceptable as sample fluctuation considering the 5% significance level. So, as conclusion the assumption of no serial dependence on annual discharges of Brazilian semiarid intermittent rivers is empirically proved.