http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/584 Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia Wed, 10 Jun 2026 03:50:58 GMT 2026-06-10T03:50:58Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86605 Título: Ensaios sobre tempo de contratos Autor(es): Costa, Antonio Kassyo Monteiro Abstract: The first proposes a theoretical model that analyzes the problem of designing optimal incentive contracts in continuous time. This thesis consists of two articles. The first proposes a theoretical model that analyzes the problem of designing optimal incentive contracts in continuous time, in order to determine the contract duration, in which a risk-neutral Principal contracts a risk-averse Agent subject. The contract is rigidly defined at the initial moment, including the linear incentive scheme and the contractual horizon. The optimal duration of the contract emerges from the interaction between the intertemporal discount factor and the agent’s participation constraint, with the reservation utility level being the central element of this mechanism, showing that contract continuity is largely determined by the participation conditions required by the Agent at the initial stage of contracting. The second article analyzes the factors associated with variation in contractual outcomes of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), with specific emphasis on contract duration as a central variable of analysis. The investigation focuses on how contractual duration influences the log odds of different outcomes, namely success (concluded) or failure (canceled or distressed). For this purpose, a multinomial logit model is used, suitable for handling categorical dependent variables with multiple categories. The results test the hypothesis that there exists an optimal contract duration, evidenced by the estimated inverted “U” shape, the estimates corroborate the hypothesis for the “U” shape, however, for the canceled status, no statistical significance was found. The hypothesis was also tested using marginal probabilities, and the estimates suggest that the “U” shape exists only for contracts that are technically active. The findings offer relevant contributions to the improvement of contractual design in infrastructure projects, assisting public managers and policymakers in defining more efficient contractual deadlines. Tipo: Tese Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86605 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86590 Título: Análise dos impactos de choques agregados sobre os setores produtivos da indústria brasileira. Autor(es): Duarte, José Roberto Lima Abstract: This study investigates the effects of aggregate shocks on the productive sectors of the Brazilian industry, using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to capture the dynamic relationships between macroeconomic variables. The analysis is based on data from the IBGE’s Quarterly National Accounts System, which classifies the Brazilian industry into four major sectors: Extractive Industries, Manufacturing Industries, Electricity and Gas Industries, and Construction Industries. This study adopts a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach, imposing long-term restrictions to distinguish supply, demand, and external shocks. Subsequently, the estimated shocks are included as exogenous variables in another model to analyze the impact of aggregate disturbances on sectors through impulse-response functions. The estimated models allow for the assessment of shocks’ impacts according to three types of transmission: total impacts, direct impacts, and indirect impacts. The results reveal marked sectoral heterogeneity, especially in the long run. Demand shocks exhibit transitory effects, except in the Construction sector, a finding consistent with the related literature. In contrast, supply shocks generate permanent impacts in most sectors, with the exception of Electricity and Gas. Finally, external shocks stand out for their large magnitudes, although their effects display different signs across the sectors analyzed. Tipo: Dissertação Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86590 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86571 Título: Uma proposta de avaliação da gestão dos recursos próprios das Unidades Federativas do Brasil Autor(es): Coelho Filho, Túlio Madson Arruda Abstract: This dissertation aims to analyze the relative efficiency of Brazilian states in converting financial autonomy and investment effort into accumulated growth of own-source revenue in the period from 2021 to 2024. The study is grounded in the context of Brazilian fiscal federalism, characterized by subnational borrowing restrictions, budget rigidity, and high dependence on intergovernmental transfers, in which the main state taxes — ICMS, IPVA and ITCMD — play a central role in fiscal sustainability. Two indicators are constructed: accumulated growth of own-source revenue and financial autonomy, defined as the ratio between own taxes and current expenditures. The descriptive analysis reveals significant heterogeneity among states and a distinction between cyclical revenue growth and structural capacity to finance public spending. Subsequently, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), BCC model oriented to output, is applied, considering financial autonomy and the share of investment in own revenue as inputs, and accumulated revenue growth as output. The results indicate that six states lie on the efficiency frontier in both estimated specifications, while the remaining states show varying degrees of distance from the frontier, suggesting potential room for revenue expansion given their structural conditions. The findings demonstrate that revenue growth alone does not characterize efficiency, requiring joint analysis of structural fiscal conditions and the ability to convert them into revenue performance. Tipo: Dissertação Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86571 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86569 Título: Estratégias setoriais de investimento público para o Ceará Autor(es): Santos, João Carlos Rodrigues dos Abstract: We propose a novel preliminary methodology to optimize sectoral public investment strategies in Ceará. The approach utilizes the state’s MIPR/CE and incorporates concepts from game theory to explore resource allocation methods, considering both pure and mixed strategies. The study evaluates the impact of these strategies on sectoral resource distribution and product generation. The results suggest that the mixed strategy — combining equitable investments, production multipliers, production equalization, and externalities — generates a relatively high payoff while promoting a more balanced distribution of resources across sectors. Specifically, each R$ 1.00 invested through the mixed strategy results in a product generation of R$ 1.44. Although preliminary, the study provides a promising methodological foundation that can evolve and contribute to the decision-making process of institutions such as SEPLAG and ADECE. Tipo: Dissertação Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 GMT http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86569 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z