http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/46 2026-06-28T01:03:44Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86824 Título: Ecoeficiência da produção de mel no Brasil: municípios como unidades tomadoras de decisão Autor(es): Chagas, Patricia Taynara de Jesus das Abstract: Beekeeping holds significant economic, environmental, and social importance, particularly in rural areas, where it contributes to income generation, food security, and ecosystem conservation, despite facing increasing challenges related to land use and climate change. Although this sector is recognized as strategic, studies evaluating its eco-efficiency remain scarce. In this context, this dissertation aimed to analyze the eco-efficiency of honey production across Brazilian municipalities in 2017, investigating the influence of environmental and socioeconomic variables. The methodology was based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), using an output oriented Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model, followed by a Fractional Logit regression to analyze its determinants. The results revealed a scenario of profound disparity and low performance: the national average eco-efficiency was only 0.1061, with 96.71% of municipalities concentrated in the low eco-efficiency range. Only 0.54% of the localities reached the eco-efficiency frontier. Econometric modeling indicated that precipitation negatively impacts the activity. Contrary to theoretical expectations, land use variables, specifically pasture and soybeans, did not show a generalized effect on efficiency across the sample, while the presence of corn proved marginally positive only for lower-performing producers. A strong dual effect of temperature is also noteworthy, as rising temperatures harmed municipalities with low eco-efficiency but favored the most eco-efficient ones. In conclusion, Brazilian beekeeping operates largely below its sustainable potential. It does not adequately convert available productive and environmental resources into economic and ecological outcomes, despite the country's diverse biomes, extensive areas suitable for beekeeping, and a high number of beehives. Therefore, Brazilian beekeeping has the potential to generate significant economic and environmental value using its current base of natural and technological resources. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86392 Título: Formação de clubes de convergência nas emissões agrícolas de gases de efeito estufa: um estudo empírico para o Matopiba Autor(es): Aguiar, Paulo Lucas da Rocha Abstract: The Matopiba region, composed of municipalities in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia, has undergone considerable and rapid transformations in land-use dynamics over recent decades, mainly due to the expansion of agricultural activities. Given the growth and importance of grain production for the Matopiba region and the way climate change can affect this production, as well as the important role of agriculture in mitigating these climate changes through the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the present study is necessary to evaluate the presence of convergence clubs with respect to GHG emissions originating from the agricultural sector in the Matopiba region. For this purpose, the methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) was used, as it is suitable for this study because it allows the identification of dynamic patterns of behavior among spatial units over time, even when they present distinct initial trajectories. The three scenarios created for this research presented the same results: rejection of the null hypothesis of global convergence and the formation of one convergence club, with no municipality being considered divergent. This means that all municipalities follow the same general trend in the evolution of emissions over time, that is, the municipalities are homogeneous in terms of their emissions trajectory. One possible explanation for this result is the agricultural expansion that has been occurring in the region, causing the productive profile, environmental policies, good management practices, and technologies used to be disseminated throughout the region. Understanding that all municipalities in the Matopiba region belong to the same convergence club is very important for policymakers, since common factors across the entire region will exert the same relative influence on agricultural emissions. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/85905 Título: Efeitos do fenômeno El Niño sobre o desempenho do agronegócio brasileiro: uma análise a partir do índice IboAgro Autor(es): Brasil Sobrinho, Carlos Alberto Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of El Niño characteristics on the economic and financial performance of Brazilian agribusiness from 1968 to 2024, through the construction and application of a specific sectoral index called IboAgro. The central objective is to evaluate, in an integrated way, how global climate shocks associated with El Niño and regional variations in specialization are related to the financial dynamics of the main agribusiness companies specific to the Brazilian stock exchange. To this end, the work proposes the calculation of IboAgro based on the IBOVESPA methodology, adapted to exclusively reflect the behavior of companies in the agricultural, livestock, and agro-industrial segments, with consistent inclusion and permanence criteria, ensuring greater stability and sectoral representativeness over time. The empirical approach adopts a quantitative econometric strategy, using models with errors consistent with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, as well as dynamic analytical arrangements that incorporate the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as a measure of the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon and variations in average annual variations by Brazilian macro-region as channels of climate transmission. Furthermore, climatic asymmetries between El Niño and La Niña episodes are explored, as well as procedures for reducing multicollinearity through Principal Component Analysis. The results indicate that positive shocks associated with El Niño exert contemporaneous and persistent negative impacts on the performance of the IboAgro index, highlighting the sector's high climate sensitivity. Furthermore, a relevant asymmetry in climatic effects is observed, with more intense impacts during El Niño episodes compared to shocks of the opposite sign. Regional rainfall, especially in the Northeast and Southeast regions, reveals itself as a central channel for the transmission of these shocks, being associated with statistically significant reductions in the aggregate performance of Brazilian agribusiness. This evidence is consistent with national and international literature, which highlights the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to extreme climatic events and the intensification of hydrological variability. It is concluded that the IboAgro constitutes a consistent and adequate analytical instrument for monitoring the response of Brazilian agribusiness to climate shocks, offering relevant support for risk management, the formulation of public policies, and the strategic planning of companies in the face of the challenges posed by climate change. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/84675 Título: Produção agropecuária em transformação: mudanças climáticas e uso da terra no Brasil Autor(es): Silva, Francisco Ian Lima da Abstract: In recent decades, climate change has become one of the main global challenges, directly affecting agricultural productivity and food security. In Brazil, this scenario is aggravated by intense land-use transformations, which rank among the main drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, positioning the agricultural sector as one of the country’s largest emitters. In this context, the general objective of this research is to assess the effects of climate and land-use changes on the gross value of agricultural production (VBV) and livestock production (VBP) per unit of CO₂ in Brazil between 1985 and 2023. Specifically, the study aims to: (i) analyze the evolution of GHG emissions, VBV, and VBP across Brazilian states; (ii) rank the federative units according to their VBV and VBP; and (iii) measure the effects of climatic variables and the influence of land-use changes on VBV/CO₂ and VBP/CO₂ in the Brazilian states between 1985 and 2023. Data were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), MapBiomas, the Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates System (SEEG), and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal – ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service – C3S), and applied to panel data models. Among the main results, it was found that the states with the highest VBV values were located in the Southeast (SP, MG), Center-West (GO, MT, MS), South (PR, RS, SC), Northeast (BA), and North (PA) regions. In turn, the states with the highest VBP values were in the Southeast (MG, SP), South (PR, RS, SC), Center-West (GO), Northeast (BA, PE, CE), and North (RO) regions. In the fixed-effects model, a 1% increase in the pasture ratio was associated with an approximate rise of 0.37% in VBV/CO₂ and 0.36% in VBP/CO₂, respectively, suggesting that either the conversion of these areas or their productive intensification may be contributing positively. However, this result also points to a possible intensification of land use, with potential environmental implications. Quantitatively, a 1% increase in temperature was associated, on average, with an increase of 22.23% in VBV/CO₂ and 18.60% in VBP/CO₂. Nonetheless, it is important to note that this impact may not be uniform across regions and agricultural activities. Finally, statistically robust evidence was lso found for harvested area, with a 0.17% increase in VBV/CO₂, as well as for cattle herd size, where a 1% rise in livestock numbers tends to increase VBP/CO₂ by 0.09%. Tipo: Dissertação 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z