http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/46 2026-05-13T19:42:22Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/85905 Título: Efeitos do fenômeno El Niño sobre o desempenho do agronegócio brasileiro: uma análise a partir do índice IboAgro Autor(es): Brasil Sobrinho, Carlos Alberto Abstract: This study analyzes the effects of El Niño characteristics on the economic and financial performance of Brazilian agribusiness from 1968 to 2024, through the construction and application of a specific sectoral index called IboAgro. The central objective is to evaluate, in an integrated way, how global climate shocks associated with El Niño and regional variations in specialization are related to the financial dynamics of the main agribusiness companies specific to the Brazilian stock exchange. To this end, the work proposes the calculation of IboAgro based on the IBOVESPA methodology, adapted to exclusively reflect the behavior of companies in the agricultural, livestock, and agro-industrial segments, with consistent inclusion and permanence criteria, ensuring greater stability and sectoral representativeness over time. The empirical approach adopts a quantitative econometric strategy, using models with errors consistent with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, as well as dynamic analytical arrangements that incorporate the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) as a measure of the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon and variations in average annual variations by Brazilian macro-region as channels of climate transmission. Furthermore, climatic asymmetries between El Niño and La Niña episodes are explored, as well as procedures for reducing multicollinearity through Principal Component Analysis. The results indicate that positive shocks associated with El Niño exert contemporaneous and persistent negative impacts on the performance of the IboAgro index, highlighting the sector's high climate sensitivity. Furthermore, a relevant asymmetry in climatic effects is observed, with more intense impacts during El Niño episodes compared to shocks of the opposite sign. Regional rainfall, especially in the Northeast and Southeast regions, reveals itself as a central channel for the transmission of these shocks, being associated with statistically significant reductions in the aggregate performance of Brazilian agribusiness. This evidence is consistent with national and international literature, which highlights the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to extreme climatic events and the intensification of hydrological variability. It is concluded that the IboAgro constitutes a consistent and adequate analytical instrument for monitoring the response of Brazilian agribusiness to climate shocks, offering relevant support for risk management, the formulation of public policies, and the strategic planning of companies in the face of the challenges posed by climate change. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/84675 Título: Produção agropecuária em transformação: mudanças climáticas e uso da terra no Brasil Autor(es): Silva, Francisco Ian Lima da Abstract: In recent decades, climate change has become one of the main global challenges, directly affecting agricultural productivity and food security. In Brazil, this scenario is aggravated by intense land-use transformations, which rank among the main drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, positioning the agricultural sector as one of the country’s largest emitters. In this context, the general objective of this research is to assess the effects of climate and land-use changes on the gross value of agricultural production (VBV) and livestock production (VBP) per unit of CO₂ in Brazil between 1985 and 2023. Specifically, the study aims to: (i) analyze the evolution of GHG emissions, VBV, and VBP across Brazilian states; (ii) rank the federative units according to their VBV and VBP; and (iii) measure the effects of climatic variables and the influence of land-use changes on VBV/CO₂ and VBP/CO₂ in the Brazilian states between 1985 and 2023. Data were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), MapBiomas, the Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates System (SEEG), and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal – ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service – C3S), and applied to panel data models. Among the main results, it was found that the states with the highest VBV values were located in the Southeast (SP, MG), Center-West (GO, MT, MS), South (PR, RS, SC), Northeast (BA), and North (PA) regions. In turn, the states with the highest VBP values were in the Southeast (MG, SP), South (PR, RS, SC), Center-West (GO), Northeast (BA, PE, CE), and North (RO) regions. In the fixed-effects model, a 1% increase in the pasture ratio was associated with an approximate rise of 0.37% in VBV/CO₂ and 0.36% in VBP/CO₂, respectively, suggesting that either the conversion of these areas or their productive intensification may be contributing positively. However, this result also points to a possible intensification of land use, with potential environmental implications. Quantitatively, a 1% increase in temperature was associated, on average, with an increase of 22.23% in VBV/CO₂ and 18.60% in VBP/CO₂. Nonetheless, it is important to note that this impact may not be uniform across regions and agricultural activities. Finally, statistically robust evidence was lso found for harvested area, with a 0.17% increase in VBV/CO₂, as well as for cattle herd size, where a 1% rise in livestock numbers tends to increase VBP/CO₂ by 0.09%. Tipo: Dissertação 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/84208 Título: Efeito da política de educação do campo sobre indicadores educacionais no Ceará Autor(es): Ferreira, Bruno Freires Abstract: In the 1990s, Brazilian rural education underwent important changes in the curricular structure of teaching, driven by the absence of a pedagogical model that addressed educational content and practices linked to rural realities. Over the years, several educational policies were developed with the purpose of reformulating the teaching provided in rural schools and promoting an inclusive education capable of incorporating knowledge, activities, and learning experiences associated with rural life. As a result, the state of Ceará developed a Rural Education policy, aiming to formulate a pedagogical proposal connected to the culture and identity of rural inhabitants. This public policy seeks to adapt teaching and learning to rural realities through contextualized pedagogical practices, teacher training, and curricular adaptation. In this context, this dissertation conducts an impact evaluation of the Rural Education policy and its effects on educational indicators of students and schools located in rural settlement areas in the state of Ceará. For this purpose, data from the Ceará Permanent System of Basic Education Assessment (Spaece) from 2007 to 2019 are used, focusing on 9th grade elementary school students and 3rd-year high school students. The difference- n differences method, proposed by Sant’Anna and Zhao (2020), is employed to analyze the results on proficiency, and the logit model is applied to estimate the factors associated with high school dropout. With respect to performance on standardized exams, the results indicated that students from rural schools achieved similar outcomes to those of students from regular and full-time high schools, even though the Rural Education proposal did not have standardized exam performance as its central focus. This finding reflects the fact that all schools follow the same National Common Curricular Base, ensuring that the content taught is also covered in rural schools. On the other hand, the results of the logit model showed that attending a rural school reduces the likelihood of dropping out of high school when compared to regular and full-time schools. This evidence highlights the potential of the policy to promote the retention of young people in rural settlements within the educational system and to ensure the completion of the basic education cycle. Tipo: Dissertação 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/83210 Título: Decomposição da evolução dos salários rurais no Brasil (2012-2024) Autor(es): Rodrigues, Cassio Naiard Abstract: This dissertation proposes an analysis of the evolution of rural wages in Brazil between 2012 and 2024. The starting point for the research is the recognition that rural Brazil has undergone intense transformations in recent decades, with a growing share of non-agricultural activities, improvements in educational levels, and demographic changes, such as an aging population and increased female participation in the labor market. The central objective of the study is to decompose the evolution of rural wages, identifying the factors that contributed to changes in labor income in recent years. To this end, the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method is used, complemented by unconditional quantile regressions (RIF-regressions), as proposed by Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2007, 2009). This approach allows us to assess the composition (differences in worker characteristics) and price (differences in the returns to these characteristics) effects across the wage distribution. The empirical analysis will be based on microdata from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Pnad Contínua) for the period in question (2012-2024). The data used refer to workers living in rural areas, aged 18 to 65, employed in agricultural and non-agricultural activities. In the estimated earnings equations, the dependent variable is the logarithm of the real hourly wage, and the explanatory variables include demographic, educational, occupational, and regional characteristics. The results indicate advances in educational levels, rising average earnings, greater female participation, and growth in non-agricultural occupations. Regression estimates reveal persistent wage differentials by gender, race, education, type of occupation, and region. Furthermore, the decomposition reveals that part of the wage growth is associated with the improvement in the workforce profile, although structural inequalities persist, especially in the North and Northeast regions. This study's contribution to the literature consists of updating new evidence on the rural labor market, in addition to offering a detailed analysis of wage trends, highlighting regional inequalities and the determinants of rural remuneration, with implications for public policies aimed at rural development and reducing inequalities. Tipo: Dissertação 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z