http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/25135 2026-06-12T13:09:55Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86736 Título: Lei de responsabilidade fiscal e os municípios cearenses: análise dos gastos com pessoal de 2019 a 2023 Autor(es): Almeida, Antonia Viviane Nunes de Abstract: The Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) aims to promote responsible management of public finances by establishing limits for expenditures and rules for fiscal transparency. One of its key provisions imposes restrictions on personnel expenditures in order to ensure budgetary balance and financial sustainability for federal entities. This study seeks to analyze the relationship between personnel expenses and tax and non-tax revenues in ten municipalities in Ceará over the period from 2019 to 2023. The objective is to assess the evolution of these variables and verify whether the limits established by the LRF were respected. A quantitative-descriptive methodology was adopted, based on the analysis of secondary data extracted from SICONFI and municipal transparency portals. The Hodrick-Prescott Filter was used to identify trend patterns and fluctuations in personnel spending and municipal revenues over time. The results show a continuous increase in personnel expenditures, while tax and non-tax revenues exhibited distinct variations across the municipalities analyzed. In some cases, the commitment of net current revenue to personnel expenses exceeded the limits established by legislation. The analysis highlights the need for efficient fiscal management to balance personnel spending and municipal revenues, ensuring economic stability and compliance with fiscal obligations. The study contributes to the understanding of municipal financial dynamics and provides insights for the formulation of public policies aimed at fiscal sustainability in different local contexts. Tipo: TCC 2024-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86735 Título: Uma análise dos impactos macroeconômicos sobre a inadimplência do crédito pessoal Autor(es): Silva, Larissa Rabelo da Abstract: The present study aims to analyze the macroeconomic impacts on personal credit delinquency in Brazil by employing the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) and applying the Impulse Response Function (IRF) methodology, together with the analysis of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) of the explanatory variables. The variables were obtained from the Central Bank of Brazil’s Time Series System for the period from March 2012 to September 2025, with monthly frequency, namely: credit portfolio delinquency; the Central Bank Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br); the unemployment rate (PNADC); the average interest rate on free-market credit operations; the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA); the degree of household income commitment to debt servicing within the National Financial System; and Gross Disposable National Income of households. Initially, unit root tests were applied to assess the stationarity of the series, indicating that only inflation was stationary in levels, classified as I(0), while the remaining variables were integrated of order one, I(1). The VECM was then estimated using the first differences of the series, incorporating the error correction terms derived from the cointegration relationships, while treating inflation as an exogenous variable. The choice of four lags was based on the Hannan–Quinn criterion, and the Johansen cointegration test indicated the presence of three cointegrating vectors. The results obtained from the IRF and FEVD analyses reveal a high degree of persistence in delinquency, characterizing strong inertia in the process. In the short run, unemployment stands out as the main determinant of rising delinquency, while the expansion of economic activity exerts a positive impact in the medium run, suggesting a deterioration in credit quality during periods of economic growth. Household income commitment shows a gradual and persistent effect, and real income displays a non-linear behavior, with an initial reduction in delinquency followed by a positive reversal over longer horizons. Inflation, treated as an exogenous variable, showed a relevant impact mainly in the short run, with unstable effects in the medium term. Therefore, it is concluded that household delinquency is predominantly influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly labor market conditions, inflation dynamics, and the degree of household income commitment. Tipo: TCC 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86734 Título: Previsão da inflação brasileira através de modelos de aprendizado de máquina – LASSO Autor(es): Ferreira, Najib Mendes Nunes Abstract: The significant impact of artificial intelligence on various sectors of a country is well known. In turn, this phenomenon has also extended to the economy and politics. Therefore, this study aims to shape a scenario in which artificial intelligence, through machine learning, is used as a complementary tool in the process of forecasting macroeconomic variables, such as inflation measured by the IPCA, and consequently assist the agents involved in decision-making. Under this perspective, the LASSO method will be employed as a variable penalization model. Thus, the selected algorithm eliminates variables considered less impactful for the variable of interest. To highlight the efficiency of this technique, performance measures such as MAE and RMSE will be applied, revealing the model’s relevant accuracy. Finally, in order to verify the effectiveness of LASSO, this algorithm must be compared with benchmark models. Tipo: TCC 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86732 Título: Análise de indicadores econômico-financeiros na estimativa de retornos de Ações Autor(es): Tela, George Dominique Abstract: Fundamental analysis, as an aspect of investment analysis, aims to establish a correlation between companies' economic and financial indicators and their performance. Performance, in turn, is associated with the company's market value, so superior performance translates into higher returns. The aim of this study is to identify indicators that can explain the return calculated by the change in the share price of Brazilian companies listed on the stock exchange during the period 2009-2019. Quarterly data was analyzed for a sample of 124 stocks, divided into three panels: the ON Stock Panel, the PN Stock Panel and a combination of ON and PN. The Hausman test indicated that the fixed effects model was more appropriate for the ON stock panel and the random effects model was used for the others. As a result, 3 variables were found with the power to explain stock returns for the ON stock panel: Current Liquidity (LC), Equity Investment (Inv_PL) and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Tipo: TCC 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z