Cenários de Previsão para a rotatividade das MPEs no mercado: um estudo de caso

Abstract

This study aims to identify the entrepreneur's profile and to quantify the decisive factors of the mortality of the Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE), whose Brazilian average annual rate is about 50%. Besides this focus, the research makes a historical analysis of the enterprising actions and of the incentive politics to the entrepreneurship of small firms in Brazil and in other countries. Since that segment is of real importance to the country, as long as it contributes greatly for job offerings and income increase with 20% of national GDP, and consequently to reduce the social inequality, a work that intends to identify the causes of the rotation of extinction of those companies identifies itself as relevant. To reach the objective, a field research was developed, through a representative sample, at the main associates or proprietors of active and extinct companies which were constituted in the period from 2001 to 2005 in the city of Picos/PI. They were collected information on the characteristics of the companies, as well as on the associates’ profiles and, once tabulated, they were confronted with a consolidated research of SEBRAE/2005 accomplished in the city of São Paulo. From this comparison, just the ratio of entrepreneur’s education in the extinct and active firms showed disparity. Based upon binary choice model, forecast scenarios were built up, varying situations of extremely optimists to the pessimists as for the characteristics of the enterprises and the associates' profiles, which resulted in probabilities for a representative one come to be out of business. The model fitness was statistically satisfactory, as forecasts of the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios revealed probabilities of 99% and 1%, respectively, for a MSE be extinct. Alternative scenarios were performed by interchanging enterprises’ characteristics and associates’ profiles.