Prognóstico da erosão costeira no litoral setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte para os anos de 2020, 2030 e 2040

Abstract

The study area is located on the northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte State, between the municipalities of Macau and Guamaré, Northeast Brazil. It is a region of socioeconomic significance reflected in the interest conflict by the oil, salt, shrimp and wind industries for the land use and occupation. The area is characterized by barrier islands system that extends parallel to the coastline and act as natural protection of the estuarine ecosystem Ponta do Tubarão Sustainable Development Reserve. Early decadal satellite images were used for the coastline delineation, using the tool Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS /ArcGIS ®). From these coastlines were established the criteria for geostatistical analysis by linear regression, which corroborated the scenarios projection of Coastal erosion for the next three decades. This strategy enabled the understanding of Coastal evolutionary behavior, highlighting the importance of environmental monitoring, focusing on erosional agents and mitigate the environmental impacts of the projections of the sea levei rising. The prognosis of the coastline resulted in beach loss on the Coastal zone and thus in the disappearance of Ponta do Tubarão and Fernandez barríer islands in a maximum períod of 30 years.