Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/33792
Title in Portuguese: Clout, activists and budget: the road to presidency
Author: Böttcher, Lucas
Herrmann, Hans Jürgen
Gersbach, Hans
Keywords: Campanha eleitoral
Redes sociais
Sociofísica
Método de Monte Carlo
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: PLoS ONE
Citation: BOTTCHER, L.; HERRMANN, H. J.; GERSBACH, H. PLoS ONE, v. 13, n. 3, p. 1-11, 2018. PLoS ONE, San Francisco, v. 13, n. 3, p. 1-11, 2018.
Abstract: Political campaigns involve, in the simplest case, two competing campaign groups which try to obtain a majority of votes. We propose a novel mathematical framework to study political campaign dynamics on social networks whose constituents are either political activists or persuadable individuals. Activists are convinced and do not change their opinion and they are able to move around in the social network to motivate persuadable individuals to vote according to their opinion. We describe the influence of the complex interplay between the number of activists, political clout, budgets, and campaign costs on the campaign result. We also identify situations where the choice of one campaign group to send a certain number of activists already pre-determines their victory. Moreover, we show that a candidate's advantage in terms of political clout can overcome a substantial budget disadvantage or a lower number of activists, as illustrated by the US presidential election 2016.
URI: http://www.repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/33792
metadata.dc.type: Artigo de Periódico
ISSN: 1932-6203
Appears in Collections:DFI - Artigos publicados em revista científica

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