Aprovação presidencial (1996-2015) na América Latina: mais participação pode ser uma saída quando a economia vai mal?

Abstract

In a region where presidents often fail to complete their mandates, it is interesting to ask, beyond the performance of the economy, how much presidential approval can vary with the use of direct democracy mechanisms and with political events. To point out the relevance of these economic, institutional, and properly political issues, such as the dismissal of presidents, in the assessment that citizens make of the Chief Executive is the goal here. The data come from Latinobarometro and encompass opinion surveys conducted annually in 16 countries from 1996 to 2015, analyzed through multilevel models. The coefficients generated indicate that among the micro-level variables, the perception of the current economic situation of the country is the most important, whereas among the macro level, elections, referenda and facultative plebiscites, as well as positive political events are those that influence more the approval of the Chief Executive.