Os determinantes da eleição para o legislativo cearense: um estudo a partir da votação dos candidatos a deputado estadual em 2010

Abstract

This research seeks to analyze the impacts of political and socioeconomic variables on the electoral success of a candidate to the legislature, from an empirical study based on the voting of the 2010 elections for the office of State Representative in the State of Ceará and in two regions: Fortaleza Metropolitan Region and Inner State. To achieve the proposed objectives, multiple regression models estimated by OLS and quantile regressions are used in order to enable greater characterization of the conditional distribution of the variables. In practice, this latter technique allows to investigate potential differences in the impact of the variables for high and low rates of voting. Among the findings, it appears the positive influence of statistically significant explanatory variables included in the models at different levels of impact according to the region in question, especially the variables dealing with expenses and campaign revenue, the re-election of candidates and of party connections with the state government and the municipal governments at the time of the campaign, inspiring a reflection on the need to carry out a political and electoral reform in the country aiming to provide more equal conditions for elections.